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Asked
20 years ago whether self-driving cars or identification by retinal scanning
would be feasible, there likely would have been a collective “Dream on!”. And yet, these are not only our present day
reality, they represent only the icing on the cake. From Siri to Alexa and Tesla, interactions
with machine-based artificial intelligence or AI permeate in our daily
lives. Netflix and Amazon serve as our
most loyal personal shoppers, always knowing just what else we may wish to view or purchase. Could machines come to serve as our personal
doctors, where life and death hang on the line?
To
get to an answer, we can assess how AI has impacted
medical research,
what strides have been made in converting research & development into
commercialized AI-based technology. We can then begin to truly evaluate whether
in another 20 years, AI might displace physicians or more benignly, serve as
their personal assistants.
AI,
the basics
AI
is essentially a branch of computer science whereby data are collected
and algorithms created based on patterns
found across the data using deep machine learning or neural networks. The
output may be a diagnostic, prognostic or disease prediction that appears as if
a human had analyzed the data and determined the output, all at a fraction of
the time it would take a human to complete.
AI
in medical research
Several
areas of medicine have been particularly amenable to AI based on the sheer
volume of data readily available:
radiology, ophthalmology and pathology (Ahuja, 2019; Gardezi et al., 2019). The data are derived from the vast numbers of
patient-derived images and recordings that these medical segments collect to
make diagnoses: from X-rays to CT scans,
MRI imaging, retinal imaging and tissue histology images.
Another
compelling example is
AI
applications in radiology, specifically breast mammography diagnostics.
Based on 100,000 breast mammogram images, Google’s
health research arm
very recently announced that their AI-trained software resulted in 5.7% fewer
false positive and 9.4% fewer false negative rates than trained radiologists
(Collins, 2020).
While their AI-software has not been approved yet by the FDA for diagnostic
purposes, the results are proving out the revolutionary impact of AI in medical
research.
What’s On the Horizon
The market has been bullish on AI medical R&D being
translated into commercial products. In 2016,
the lion’s share of AI-based investments went to the healthcare sector over
other sectors (CB Insights Research, 2017). The appetite for
AI-based
medicine continues to increase at a rate of 40% and is expected to top $6.6
billion by 2021 (Frost & Sullivan, 2020). With funding supporting AI R&D and a
marketplace appearing ready to adopt, discussions abound over the implications
of AI for physicians in the workforce. The doomsday scenario that they would be
replaced by machines is a fair concern. Just take a look at the IDX-DR case:
opthalmologist are no longer required to screen for diabetic retinopathy in
instances where the IDX-DR screening tool is used. Other the other hand, AI-based tools can be
relegated to high volume repetitive workloads and facilitation of clinical
workflows without impacting the billable reimburseables.
There
may likely be some shifts in the physician workforce, but the optimist in me
believes that AI can be leveraged to create new opportunities for physicians.
By relegating more of the routine, repetitive workload to AI, it could
importantly provide precious time back to
physicians
staving off physician burnout, a true modern day symptom afflicting many
overworked providers. This could
ultimately translate into more face time with patients -- “yes, the doctor is
in.”
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